The first statistical release of South Africa’s Census 2011 has produced some interesting preliminary statistics. To read Census 2011 Statistical Release, please go to: http://www.statssa.gov.za/Publications/P03014/P030142011.pdf
Despite the fact that two UCT demography experts, professors Tom Moultrie and Rob Dorrington, cautioned Statistics SA against the publication of the results so quickly, the government went ahead with the launch on 30 October 2012. In response to the UCT professors concerns, SA’s statistician-general, Mr Pali Lehohla, has explained why he thinks the release is both accurate and timely.
Politically speaking, the hottest potato in the census results concerns the figures relating to the migration of citizens out of the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, and into Gauteng and the Western Cape. The statistical release does provide a rationale for this migration – i.e. it shows that the average household income for Gauteng and the Western Cape is about double that for the other provinces, while the unemployment rate in Eastern Cape, KZN and Limpopo is almost double that for Western Cape and Gauteng. After all, who would want to remain in provinces that are plagued by high levels of poverty, few work opportunities, poor schooling and high levels of suspicion with regard to fairness in the awarding of tenders? The push and pull factors are clear for all to see.
But the perceived reality of this large-scale migration is likely to cause a major headache for the authorities, as it means that according to the formula more of the national budget should be allocated to Gauteng and the Western Cape, and less to KZN and the Eastern Cape. The ruling party may find it hard to allocate more funding to provinces with the largest opposition vote (i.e. Western Cape and Gauteng), and less to provinces where it is assured of electoral victory. On the other hand, the idea of an interventionist state (punted by COSATU and the SACP) suggests that, instead of treating the reality of this migration as a major factor in determining how the budget should be spent, it may be more important to try to fix the most dysfunctional provinces. Employing this approach, the ANC could argue that more funds need to be spent on turning those provinces around, and offering more opportunities to people living in rural, more cut-off parts of the country.
In general, the report is encouraging, however, in so far as it shows that there has been a gradual improvement in the provision of essential services and housing to the majority of the population.
For the world of business, and for online businesses in particular, probably the most interesting results are those relating to how many households have access to the internet, and what technology they are using to access the web. The report shows that 65% of households have no internet access at all, in other words 35% of households DO have internet access. Surprisingly, of the 35% of the population that do have internet access, 46,3% the internet via their cell phones.
From the maps that the cellphone providers publish, it is clear that cellphone coverage is most comprehensive in the cities and urban areas, while in most rural areas there is virtually no coverage. When one combines the fact of such poor cellphone coverage with the lack of landlines as well as computer facilities in poor rural schools and communities in the rural areas of KZN and other provinces, it is clear that SA have a long way to go before we can say that South Africans living in rural areas have a fair and equal chance.
We would be very interested to hear how you find the latest release of Census 2011.